My(AHM CREATES) PRU-14 2018 PREDICTION!!!

UPDATE:
11 MAY 2018
PKR:  113 / 121 seats ( plus 1 or 9 seat(s), AHM's Prediction = 112 seats )
BN: 79 seats (short of 16 seats, AHM Prediction = 95 seats )
PAS: 18 seats (exceeded by 3 seats,  AHM Prediction = 15 seats )
OTHERS: 4 seats ( NOT accounted for in my Prediction )

( The above is my PRU-14 Prediction )

Note, the PKR seats/figures includes DAP in Sabah & Sarawak even though they'd used their own symbol. Also included are PH-friendly WARISAN Sabah.

To validate my claim later on, the only people I'd shared this prediction with are friends in a certain PRU-14 WA group.

( PRU-14 Silver Dirham, LIMITED MINTAGE of 222pcs )

Selamat "Hari Kemerdekaan" ke-58. Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka!

 (Peta Singapaura semasa Perang Dunia Ke-2.

 "Keterancatan Akal" Pimpinan British Membiarkan tentera naik basikal menakluki Kota Singa dari belakang.)

" NegaraKU, Tanah Tumpahnya DarahKU.

Negara KITA, Tanggungjawab KITA "

31 Ogos setiap tahun adalah hari untuk semua warga negara Malaysia untuk bukan sahaja menyambut dengan rasa syukur dan gembira tetapi juga adalah hari untuk mengambil kira sejarah nan lepas.

Walaupun kita boleh rasa terhibur dengan "Keterancatan Akal" kerajaan dan askar British yang 'membiarkan' sahaja tentera Jepun masuk ikut pintu belakang dengan hanya menggunakan basikal walhal meriam-meriam besar Empayar British menghala ke laut, kita patut menghargai pengorbanan askar Melayu di Pasir Pinji dan Bukit Candu...Askar-askar Melayu yang Hebat yang pada hemah saya akan lebih ulung lagi jika tidak dibawah pimpinan " Panglima Terencat British". Somalia sudah cukup membuktikan kehebatan Angkatan Tentera kita.

Walaupun kita boleh rasa terhibur dengan Maharaja Lawak dan Akademi Fantasia kita perlu tentukan Si Tanggang atau Si Kitul versi alaf baru tidak menjelma kembali. Watak jelmaan Melayu alaf baru atau Si TangTUL tidak boleh dibiarkan berleluasa kerana Duri dalam Daging inilah yang menyebabkan kita dijajah. Empayar Melaka tumbang 1511 patut dijadikan iktibar.

Walaupun pimpinan Melayu Islam melaungkan slogan - slogan kemerdekaan kepada rakyat marhaen kita imbas sekali-lalu 7 Wasiat Raja-Raja Melayu sebelum Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka! dilaungkan.Berapa dari 7 wasiat tersebut masih tinggal untuk diserahkan kepada generasi berikutnya?Adakah Si Kitul atau Si Tanggang atau lebih buruk lagi watak jelmaan Melayu alaf baru si TangTUL sudah memainkan peranan?

Walaupun kita ada Rukun Negara, apa gunanya jika prinsip "Keluhuran Perlembagaan & Kedaulatan Undang-Undang" tidak diendahkan oleh puak-puak berkepentingan apatah lagi mereka yang diberikan amanah untuk digalas bagi pihak rakyat jelata!

Akhir kalam dan megambil kira salah satu prinsip Rukun Negara Malaysia - "Kepercayaan kepada Tuhan", walaupun kita sudah Merdeka jika gembar-gembur media dipercayai tetapi hakikatnya kita masih lagi hambaNYA!.

Selamat Hari "Kemerdekaan"! 

Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka!

Amirul HM
31 Ogos 2015
Dataran Merdeka

Kenyataan Media Sosial oleh Amirul HM, 18 Ogos 2015

KENYATAAN MEDIA SOSIAL.
Selasa, 18 Ogos 2015. Damansara Utama-SELANGOR D.E.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------


Saya Amirul Haji Mohamad,
yang dilahirkan di @Selangor,
membesar di @Melaka
dan pernah bekerja di seluruh @Malaysia (termasuk W.P.Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya dan Labuan), mengambil pendirian:-

(1) Bahawa adalah tidak wajar mana-mana Ahli Politik atau Parti-parti Politik menerima waima 1 SEN pun dari LUAR NEGARA Sumbangan berbentuk Politik dari orang perseorangan, syarikat-syarikat, NGO, Negara-Negara Asing mahupun Pemimpin Negara Asing.

(2) Pendirian saya adalah berteraskan isu KEDAULATAN NEGARA MALAYSIA (dengan izin "National Sovereignity") yang saya amat kasihi.

(3) MALAYSIA (yang dahulunya dikenali sebagai MALAYA dan sebelumnya PERSEKUTUAN TANAH MELAYU) sudahpun melalui beberapa perubahan nama jika dibandingkan dengan Wasiat Asal Raja-Raja sebelum Kemerdekaan 1957 atau lebih dikenali sebagai "7 Wasiat Raja-Raja Melayu".
Cukup-cukuplah sekadar perubahan kali terakhir.

(4) Sejarah telah banyak mengajar kita bahawa runtuhnya sesuatu Kerajaan atau Empayar adalah bukan hanya kerana Ancaman Luar Negara tetapi juga Ancaman Dalam Negeri.
Semasa di Tingkatan 4 di MTD Sg.Besi, saya pernah berdebat di peringkat akhir Pertandingan Bahas BM akan tajuk:-
"Ancaman Luar Negara lebih Mengugat Kedaulatan Negara dari Ancaman Dalam Negara ".

Perbendaharaan peribahasa Melayu menghujani perdebatan tersebut dengan peribahasa seperti - "Musuh dalam Selimut", "Api dalam Sekam", "Gunting dalam Liputan", "Duri dalam Daging" serta perumpamaan "Harapkan Pegar, Pegar Makan Padi".

(5) Pada masa yang sama, saya ingin mengingatkan diri saya dan menggesa rakyat Malaysia agar belajar dari slogan atau peribahasa bersifat "luar negara".

Walaupun belajar di UK, saya amat bersetuju dengan slogan seperti "Buy British Last" atau "Look East policy" dan lebih-lebih lagi "Beware of Greeks bearing Gifts".
Saya amat teruja kerana dengan pertolongan media barat dalam filem "Troy" saya dapat menerangkan maksud "Beware of Greeks bearing Gifts" kepada anak saya yang berumur 7 tahun pada masa itu. Syukur Alhamdullilah, anak saya yang pernah bersemuka dengan PM dan TPM masa itu amat memahami ungkapan barat
- "Beware of Greeks bearing Gifts"....dan saya merasakan tanggungjawab saya sebagai Ayah untuk mendidik, terlaksana untuk seketika.

(6) Pada hemah saya yang kurang ilmu, harta atau kemahsyuran ini*** - SESIAPA pun tanpa mengira sama ada mereka adalah ahli parti UMNO, DAP, PKR, PAS atau MIC,MCA serta parti-parti komponen BN yang lain di samping part-parti politik picisan yang lain, ADALAH MERUPAKAN PENGKHIANAT NEGARA jika mereka menerima sumbangan dana politik luar negara.

*** Bak kata Damak kepada PM# dalam filem Tragedi Seri Mersing -
"...Apa ada pada PAYA, dalam tidak tohor pun bukan;
Apa ada pada SAYA, berharta tidak mahsyur pun bukan.
Saya pergi dulu PM#"

# PM = Pak Malau.

(7) Justeru itu sebagai PERINGATAN kepada Saya, Kaum Keluarga, Sanak Saudara, Rakan Taulan, Guru-Guru & Ustaz-Ustaz serta seluruh Rakyat Malaysia, sama-samalah kita berdoa agar Saya/Kami TIDAK menjadi Si TANGGANG atau Si KITUL versi alaf baru.
Amin.


Amirul HM,
18 Ogos 2015 di D.Utama, SELANGOR D.E.
 

Malaysian CHESS Politics!

( KLCA - An affiliate of the Malaysian Chess Federation )

My Weltanschauung on Malaysian Chess:

Despite Ramadhan or rather in spite of it, lobbying for positions in the upcoming MCF elections have moved up a notch. I've no idea when the elections will be held as there are no Announcements or Notice(s) by MCF to affiliates to that effect but presumably the 2015 MCF AGM and elections will be held after Raya and on/before 31/12/2014 though I've heard it might even be next week to take people by surprise!

The field is starting to take shape and depending on who you talk to it will be a No-Contest, straight fight between Incumbent and Challenger, a 3-cornered fight or even a crowded field of four contenders. How I wish there is a "Joker in the Pack" ala UK's Monster Raving Loony Party which some of my university students voted for when I was in the UK which would add some laughter to the whole process. I guess despite being rated 5th in ASEAN ahead of Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, Thailand and Timor Leste but behind Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore and even Myanmar coupled with the fact that Malaysia do not not have a GM (only 2-3 "active" IMs) chess must be serious business for its stakeholders.

Having used to many "grassroots" elections since student days, I am disappointed by the lack of a manifesto or proposed development commitment by any of the contenders to-date which indicates the level of disdain they have for stakeholders of the game. Therefore, its no surprises how the votes will be secured, most probably via alliances and "Mamak Deals"!

My Best Wishes to All and Any contending. Please compete on your positive chess credentials i.e. What your Goodsel(ves) and your team have done for chess in Malaysia rather than a negative "whisper or poison-pen" campaign. My only doa is that the contender who did the most for chess development in Malaysia should win.


As a character in P.Ramlee's Ali Baba said - "...Mari Kita Tengok Siapa Yang Kena!? "

177 Masjid / Surau Target

One of the better childhood memories I had with my late father i.e. Haji Mohamad and which I tend to remember on a weekly basis is that whenever possible on Friday he'll come back and take me to go for friday prayers...Normally, we'll go to pray either at Masjid Kawasan Melayu (now rebuild) near Old Town,PJ or just up the road from our PJ house at Jalan Universiti i.e Masjid Kolej Islam (Section 16 PJ). Sometimes we'll go Section 14 or even the National Mosque.

After that, he'll treat me or My brother and I for briyani lunch. What's so special about Briyani lunch....one may ask? Well in Those days in the 70s and early 80s, restaurants will only cook briyani either on Fridays or Fridays and weekends.

As such part of my 1435 Hijrah resolution is to pray in as many different mosque as possible with my family and especially my son.

Target is 177 Masjid and/or Surau.

As of to-date, ONLY 18 achieved in 3 countries. Another 159 to go.
Note: There are a few others in KL, Selangor but I can't recall where exactly.

MALAYSIA 

KL  @2
1. 02/02/2014 - Masjid Negara, Zuhur
2. 31/01/2014 - Masjid At-Taqwa, TTDI - KL. Friday
3.

Selangor  @3
1. - Surau Mutiara Damansara - PJ.
2. Masjid Seksyen 14 - PJ.
3. Masjid KLIA - Sepang
4.

Negeri Sembilan  @3
1. Masjid Negeri - Seremban.
2. Surau KTK  Lama - Seremban
3. Surau KTK Baru - Bandar ENSTEK 

 Melaka @1
1. Masjid Kesang?? - Jasin
 
 Pulau Pinang @1
1. 12/2013 - Masjid Jamek??? - Jln. Mcallister - Friday

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES  @3

Al Ain
1. 12/2013 - Masjid UAE Unversity. Zuhur, Asar & Maghrib
2. 12/2013 - ???. Friday
 
Abu Dhabi
1. 12/2013 - Grand Mosque. Zuhur

SAUDI ARABIA  @5

Mekah
1. Masjidil Haram
2. Masjid Hudaibiah (for  Miqat)
3. Masjid ??? (for Miqat)

Madinah
1. Masjid Nabawi
2. Masjid Quba

UPDATE:
2015
7 August. Masjid Kg. Gajah, PERAK.

3rd FORCE - Boon or, Bane?

UPDATE 07/05/2013:
In Sarawak, SWP dedided matters in P.203 Lubok Antu. In P.220 Baram, though getting only 363 votes an independent was the spoiler in a race decided by less than 200votes.

UPDATE 06/05/2013:
3rd Force "disturbed" matters in Alor Setar-KEDAH, Cameron Highlands & Damak(N10) in PAHANG and Semenyih-SELANGOR.

Notable Independents
1,590 P.042: Tasik Gelugor-PP. Sharif Omar (x-UMNO Deputy Minister & T.Gelugor MP)
0,447 P.067: Kuala Kangsar-PERAK. Kamiliah Ibrahim (x-Wanita UMNO Deputy Head)

BERJASA & PSM managed to get a few thousand votes. PCM got slightly over 2,000 votes in 2 Penang constituencies.
In East Malaysia, SWP@15k++ (476+ 4,187 + 3,936 + 417 + 4,485 + 2,129 ) and STAR@ ( 306 + 69 + ) also secured thousands of votes.

BERJASA votes P@ 31,835 / State@ 3,858
-------
3,530 P.009: Alor Setar-KEDAH ( RESULTS)
2,630 P.017: Padang Serai-KEDAH ( RESULTS)
0,912 P.078: Cameron Highlands-PAHANG ( RESULTS)
2,053 P.072: Tapah-PERAK ( RESULTS)
4,152 Selayang (Official RESULTS)
4,454 Subang (Official RESULTS)
6,289 Kapar-SELANGOR (Official Results)
0,949 P.115: Batu-KL (RESULTS)
6,866 Seremban (Official RESULTS)

State:
2,061 Derga-KEDAH (Official RESULTS)
0,430 Kuala Sepetang-PERAK (Official RESULTS)
0,353 Hutan Melintang-PERAK (Official RESULTS)
1,014 Kajang-SELANGOR (Official RESULTS)

PSM votes State@8,136
---
State:
5,568 Semenyih-SELANGOR (Official RESULTS)
Note: IF not for PSM, PKR would have won the seat
2,568 Jelapang-PERAK (Official RESULTS)

Have not analysed figures for Sabah and Sarawak yet but SWP, STAR & SAPP "disturbed" many seats.

>>>>>>>
As the voting process for Malaysia's "armageddon" GE13 is still on-going, it seemed that there are still "pockets of undecided voters" who'll only decide when they are about to mark their ballot.

It'll be interesting to see how the Motley Crew "3rd Force" performs - BERJASA, P.Cinta Malaysia(PCM), KITA, STAR and SAPP added with Independents e.g. Tok Mun in Kuala Terengganu and Bunga Raya candidate Herman Tino in Tg.Karang coupled with ex-BN/PR Independents who were not selected and not forgetting the Spoilt Votes(Intentional or, Not)!

My random sampling indicates they'll get less than 5% of the votes cast.

Anything more than that, means a myriad of factors e.g. Public is fed-up of both BN&PR or, Infighting/Sabotage or, Poor Selection of Candidates or, as in the case of Sabah&Sarawak they are "pissed-off" with "ORANG MALAYA's" meddling.

When push comes to shove, the 3rd Force will be "disturbing" in many seats. An upset or 2 might be in store for the Motley 3rd Force.

My GE13 Predictions %!?

UPDATE 06/05/2013:

Even before results were out, my sms to those who'd asked for my opinion were as follows:-

" BN wil win simple majority & hard pressed to maintain 2008 numbers.
However, in terms of votes PR wil win.
Winners 2nite wil be DAP, PAS & UMNO (winners-neutral).
Neutral on PKR, STAR & SAPP.
Losers wil b MCA, MIC, Gerakan, PPP.
3rd Force e.g. BERJASA, PCM, KITA, SAPP, SWP & STAR will kacau a few places. (refer HERE )


And with official results out and as per my analysis, I'm almost spot on.
Variances were:-
(1) PKR did not perform as bad as expected. Credible candidates fielded helped them to steady their ship.
(2) MIC also did not perform as bad as expected. Had expected them to win in Sg.Siput and lose in Segamat but the reverse happened. Cameron Highlands was secured, thanks to BERJASA.


Other Comments:
UMNO
PAS

>>>>>>>
In the weeks leading to GE13, many friends (mainly RMC, A-Levels, IIUM & UM/AEI alumni) and acquaintances - from CEOs, Government Servants to Academicians asked me as to what the end result will be.

After the Sabah incident, my views had never wavered.

My analysis were constant:-
BN will win simple majority and a decline from 2008 numbers is for me not unexpected.
All this talk of BN regaining their 2/3majority is simply bollocks.

PR will however win the popular votes casted.
PR will gain a few more seats in Pahang, Johor, Sarawak & Sabah but they'll lose seats in Kedah, Perak, Selangor & KL.


WINNERS:
DAP
UMNO
PAS


NEUTRAL:
PKR

LOSERS:
MCA
Gerakan
MIC
PPP

"KACAU" or "TROUBLEMAKERS":
BERJASA
PCM
KITA
PSM
SAPP
STAR
SWP
+ Independents