MY Weltanschauung VALUATION!!

Sunday, May 5, 2013

3rd FORCE - Boon or, Bane?

UPDATE 07/05/2013:
In Sarawak, SWP dedided matters in P.203 Lubok Antu. In P.220 Baram, though getting only 363 votes an independent was the spoiler in a race decided by less than 200votes.

UPDATE 06/05/2013:
3rd Force "disturbed" matters in Alor Setar-KEDAH, Cameron Highlands & Damak(N10) in PAHANG and Semenyih-SELANGOR.

Notable Independents
1,590 P.042: Tasik Gelugor-PP. Sharif Omar (x-UMNO Deputy Minister & T.Gelugor MP)
0,447 P.067: Kuala Kangsar-PERAK. Kamiliah Ibrahim (x-Wanita UMNO Deputy Head)

BERJASA & PSM managed to get a few thousand votes. PCM got slightly over 2,000 votes in 2 Penang constituencies.
In East Malaysia, SWP@15k++ (476+ 4,187 + 3,936 + 417 + 4,485 + 2,129 ) and STAR@ ( 306 + 69 + ) also secured thousands of votes.

BERJASA votes P@ 31,835 / State@ 3,858
3,530 P.009: Alor Setar-KEDAH ( RESULTS)
2,630 P.017: Padang Serai-KEDAH ( RESULTS)
0,912 P.078: Cameron Highlands-PAHANG ( RESULTS)
2,053 P.072: Tapah-PERAK ( RESULTS)
4,152 Selayang (Official RESULTS)
4,454 Subang (Official RESULTS)
6,289 Kapar-SELANGOR (Official Results)
0,949 P.115: Batu-KL (RESULTS)
6,866 Seremban (Official RESULTS)

2,061 Derga-KEDAH (Official RESULTS)
0,430 Kuala Sepetang-PERAK (Official RESULTS)
0,353 Hutan Melintang-PERAK (Official RESULTS)
1,014 Kajang-SELANGOR (Official RESULTS)

PSM votes State@8,136
5,568 Semenyih-SELANGOR (Official RESULTS)
Note: IF not for PSM, PKR would have won the seat
2,568 Jelapang-PERAK (Official RESULTS)

Have not analysed figures for Sabah and Sarawak yet but SWP, STAR & SAPP "disturbed" many seats.

As the voting process for Malaysia's "armageddon" GE13 is still on-going, it seemed that there are still "pockets of undecided voters" who'll only decide when they are about to mark their ballot.

It'll be interesting to see how the Motley Crew "3rd Force" performs - BERJASA, P.Cinta Malaysia(PCM), KITA, STAR and SAPP added with Independents e.g. Tok Mun in Kuala Terengganu and Bunga Raya candidate Herman Tino in Tg.Karang coupled with ex-BN/PR Independents who were not selected and not forgetting the Spoilt Votes(Intentional or, Not)!

My random sampling indicates they'll get less than 5% of the votes cast.

Anything more than that, means a myriad of factors e.g. Public is fed-up of both BN&PR or, Infighting/Sabotage or, Poor Selection of Candidates or, as in the case of Sabah&Sarawak they are "pissed-off" with "ORANG MALAYA's" meddling.

When push comes to shove, the 3rd Force will be "disturbing" in many seats. An upset or 2 might be in store for the Motley 3rd Force.

My GE13 Predictions %!?

UPDATE 06/05/2013:

Even before results were out, my sms to those who'd asked for my opinion were as follows:-

" BN wil win simple majority & hard pressed to maintain 2008 numbers.
However, in terms of votes PR wil win.
Winners 2nite wil be DAP, PAS & UMNO (winners-neutral).
Neutral on PKR, STAR & SAPP.
Losers wil b MCA, MIC, Gerakan, PPP.
3rd Force e.g. BERJASA, PCM, KITA, SAPP, SWP & STAR will kacau a few places. (refer HERE )

And with official results out and as per my analysis, I'm almost spot on.
Variances were:-
(1) PKR did not perform as bad as expected. Credible candidates fielded helped them to steady their ship.
(2) MIC also did not perform as bad as expected. Had expected them to win in Sg.Siput and lose in Segamat but the reverse happened. Cameron Highlands was secured, thanks to BERJASA.

Other Comments:

In the weeks leading to GE13, many friends (mainly RMC, A-Levels, IIUM & UM/AEI alumni) and acquaintances - from CEOs, Government Servants to Academicians asked me as to what the end result will be.

After the Sabah incident, my views had never wavered.

My analysis were constant:-
BN will win simple majority and a decline from 2008 numbers is for me not unexpected.
All this talk of BN regaining their 2/3majority is simply bollocks.

PR will however win the popular votes casted.
PR will gain a few more seats in Pahang, Johor, Sarawak & Sabah but they'll lose seats in Kedah, Perak, Selangor & KL.




+ Independents